Arkansas’ statewide home sales fell 1.3% in January 2010 compared to one year ago, although two of the state’s largest counties saw double-digit declines.
The Arkansas Realtors Association reports that overall sales dropped in three of the five largest markets in the state. Pulaski County home sales tumbled 12.5%, while Benton County saw an 11.3% decline and Sebastian County sales dropped 11.1%.
Washington County home sales rose 3.4% and Saline County sales grew by 1.6%.
Average home prices trended higher in January. The average home price in Arkansas rose 2.6% to $139,220.
Analysts suggest that the troubled economy and job insecurity contributed to the mediocre report.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
ARKANSAS ELECTION LINE: U.S. CONGRESS, DISTRICT 3
ARKANSAS ELECTION LINE: U.S. CONGRESS, DISTRICT 3
Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional District may be the easiest and hardest race to predict in 2010. First, the easy part.
The 3rd District will stay in the GOP column this year. The Arkansas Election Line rates the district as “Safe Republican.”
Barring a major upset in the Republican primary, there are a number of GOP candidates that could beat Democratic nominee David Whitaker based purely on the voter demographics of the district.
Now, the hard part: Which of the 8 GOP Congressional nominees will win the nomination? We’ve talked to a wide variety of contacts and sources in the region and conclude there are several scenarios that could play out.
There is a consensus sentiment that State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe of Rogers, former State Sen. Gunner DeLay of Fort Smith and Rogers Mayor Steve Womack are the likeliest contenders to make the run-off.
But, a number of spoilers could ultimately re-arrange the finish of the race.
1. Gunner DeLay could lead the ticket into the run-off based on regional candidate appeal. DeLay is the only candidate south of the Bobby Hopper Tunnel, the dividing line between northwest Arkansas and the River Valley.
As much as 25% of the voter turnout in the statewide GOP primary may come from Benton County alone. With 6 of the 8 candidates having some sort of political base in Benton County and adjacent Washington County, there is the possibility that those candidates carve up the votes in such a fashion that DeLay’s Fort Smith regional appeal propels him to the forefront.
However, he’ll face challenges in a run-off as the northwest Arkansas region will coalesce behind his ultimate competitor under that scenario. DeLay has been in this position before when he competed in a run-off against John Boozman in a Congressional special election in 2000.
2. Cecile Bledsoe has several advantages that give her contender status. First, she is the only female in the race. Her appeal with conservative women voters and a strong Republican women’s grassroots network will work in her favor in the primary.
She has the endorsement of former Cong. Asa Hutchinson and she’s using consultants also working with current Cong. John Boozman’s Senate run. The Hutchinson and Boozman connections won’t hurt her. However, Bledsoe was elected to the State Senate unopposed in 2008; she hasn’t had a contested election in nearly a decade.
3. Steve Womack has been the most aggressive campaigner and fundraiser to date. Womack, whose military background and no-tax reputation, positions him as friendly to business and attractive to conservative GOP voters. However, in the past he has espoused anti-immigration rhetoric that would make one large regional employer – Tyson Foods – a bit nervous about his candidacy.
Womack and Bledsoe will compete for some of the same voter base, but there are a lot of votes in the region where they will compete strongest – enough that even with split-voters they could both make a run-off.
SPOILERS:
Mike Moore is the Boone County Judge, a sizeable population base in the eastern part of the district. Harrison, the county seat, is a GOP haven unattached to Benton and Washington counties where the University of Arkansas, Wal-Mart, Tyson Foods and J.B. Hunt dominate.
Moore is well-liked and respected and should do well in his home county. His ability to peel votes from other candidates should not be enough to propel him into a run-off, but he siphons votes from the 3 front-runners, possibly DeLay more than the other two.
Bernie Skoch has been in the race since before Boozman announced his Senate bid. He is a TEA Party activist and enjoys support from the organization in northwest Arkansas. Skoch’s ultra-conservative base is unlikely large enough to gain him a run-off spot, but again, he could slice votes from one of the front-runners who might have appeal to this crowd.
OTHER FACTORS:
U.S. Senate race – The GOP Senate primary will drive turnout in the 3rd District. Roughly 50% of the total statewide Republican primary vote will come from the 3rd District. The Senate race, with its numerous northwest Arkansas candidates, will definitely boost turnout for the Congressional race. Higher turnout aids the candidates in the two major counties in the district, Benton and Washington.
Voting records – All 3 front-runners have a public record that could be exploited. Bledsoe’s legislative record is strong pro-life, but she did vote for a tobacco tax increase tied to health care expansion (and a satellite medical school campus in northwest Arkansas) in the most recent legislative session. Expect that vote to become an issue. DeLay carried a load of labor legislation in the twilight of his legislative career. Support for labor, a whipping post for conservative voters, could certainly be exploited by DeLay’s opponents. Womack has scores of administrative decisions from his years as Mayor of Rogers. Opposition research will surely dredge up an issue or two from his past.
Money is tight – With competitive Senate primaries, 3 open Congressional seats in Arkansas, and a full slate of statewide constitutional and local offices, the purse strings for political contributions are severely limited in this election cycle. While individual businesspeople are giving money to favorite candidates in the 3rd, corporate donations are adopting a “wait-and-see” attitude. None of the candidates in this primary have the ability to fully self-fund a competitive race.
So with all of that background, The Arkansas Election Line, rates the 3rd Congressional District GOP primary “Toss Up,” although we do see front-runners establishing themselves. This will be one of the most interesting races to watch unfold.
Your thoughts and tips? Send them to roby@talkbusiness.net
RECOMMENDED READING:
Jason Tolbert with The Tolbert Report – U.S. Congress, District 3
Blake Rutherford with Blake’s Think Tank - U.S. Congress, District 3
Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional District may be the easiest and hardest race to predict in 2010. First, the easy part.
The 3rd District will stay in the GOP column this year. The Arkansas Election Line rates the district as “Safe Republican.”
Barring a major upset in the Republican primary, there are a number of GOP candidates that could beat Democratic nominee David Whitaker based purely on the voter demographics of the district.
Now, the hard part: Which of the 8 GOP Congressional nominees will win the nomination? We’ve talked to a wide variety of contacts and sources in the region and conclude there are several scenarios that could play out.
There is a consensus sentiment that State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe of Rogers, former State Sen. Gunner DeLay of Fort Smith and Rogers Mayor Steve Womack are the likeliest contenders to make the run-off.
But, a number of spoilers could ultimately re-arrange the finish of the race.
1. Gunner DeLay could lead the ticket into the run-off based on regional candidate appeal. DeLay is the only candidate south of the Bobby Hopper Tunnel, the dividing line between northwest Arkansas and the River Valley.
As much as 25% of the voter turnout in the statewide GOP primary may come from Benton County alone. With 6 of the 8 candidates having some sort of political base in Benton County and adjacent Washington County, there is the possibility that those candidates carve up the votes in such a fashion that DeLay’s Fort Smith regional appeal propels him to the forefront.
However, he’ll face challenges in a run-off as the northwest Arkansas region will coalesce behind his ultimate competitor under that scenario. DeLay has been in this position before when he competed in a run-off against John Boozman in a Congressional special election in 2000.
2. Cecile Bledsoe has several advantages that give her contender status. First, she is the only female in the race. Her appeal with conservative women voters and a strong Republican women’s grassroots network will work in her favor in the primary.
She has the endorsement of former Cong. Asa Hutchinson and she’s using consultants also working with current Cong. John Boozman’s Senate run. The Hutchinson and Boozman connections won’t hurt her. However, Bledsoe was elected to the State Senate unopposed in 2008; she hasn’t had a contested election in nearly a decade.
3. Steve Womack has been the most aggressive campaigner and fundraiser to date. Womack, whose military background and no-tax reputation, positions him as friendly to business and attractive to conservative GOP voters. However, in the past he has espoused anti-immigration rhetoric that would make one large regional employer – Tyson Foods – a bit nervous about his candidacy.
Womack and Bledsoe will compete for some of the same voter base, but there are a lot of votes in the region where they will compete strongest – enough that even with split-voters they could both make a run-off.
SPOILERS:
Mike Moore is the Boone County Judge, a sizeable population base in the eastern part of the district. Harrison, the county seat, is a GOP haven unattached to Benton and Washington counties where the University of Arkansas, Wal-Mart, Tyson Foods and J.B. Hunt dominate.
Moore is well-liked and respected and should do well in his home county. His ability to peel votes from other candidates should not be enough to propel him into a run-off, but he siphons votes from the 3 front-runners, possibly DeLay more than the other two.
Bernie Skoch has been in the race since before Boozman announced his Senate bid. He is a TEA Party activist and enjoys support from the organization in northwest Arkansas. Skoch’s ultra-conservative base is unlikely large enough to gain him a run-off spot, but again, he could slice votes from one of the front-runners who might have appeal to this crowd.
OTHER FACTORS:
U.S. Senate race – The GOP Senate primary will drive turnout in the 3rd District. Roughly 50% of the total statewide Republican primary vote will come from the 3rd District. The Senate race, with its numerous northwest Arkansas candidates, will definitely boost turnout for the Congressional race. Higher turnout aids the candidates in the two major counties in the district, Benton and Washington.
Voting records – All 3 front-runners have a public record that could be exploited. Bledsoe’s legislative record is strong pro-life, but she did vote for a tobacco tax increase tied to health care expansion (and a satellite medical school campus in northwest Arkansas) in the most recent legislative session. Expect that vote to become an issue. DeLay carried a load of labor legislation in the twilight of his legislative career. Support for labor, a whipping post for conservative voters, could certainly be exploited by DeLay’s opponents. Womack has scores of administrative decisions from his years as Mayor of Rogers. Opposition research will surely dredge up an issue or two from his past.
Money is tight – With competitive Senate primaries, 3 open Congressional seats in Arkansas, and a full slate of statewide constitutional and local offices, the purse strings for political contributions are severely limited in this election cycle. While individual businesspeople are giving money to favorite candidates in the 3rd, corporate donations are adopting a “wait-and-see” attitude. None of the candidates in this primary have the ability to fully self-fund a competitive race.
So with all of that background, The Arkansas Election Line, rates the 3rd Congressional District GOP primary “Toss Up,” although we do see front-runners establishing themselves. This will be one of the most interesting races to watch unfold.
Your thoughts and tips? Send them to roby@talkbusiness.net
RECOMMENDED READING:
Jason Tolbert with The Tolbert Report – U.S. Congress, District 3
Blake Rutherford with Blake’s Think Tank - U.S. Congress, District 3
BRUMMETT: LINCOLN, HALTER SHOULD DEBATE
Arkansas News Bureau columnist John Brummett writes what all of us in the press are saying privately.
We grow weary of the daily tit-for-tat of press releases from campaign surrogates in the Lincoln v. Halter Democratic primary (other races, too).
Brummett singles out Halter spokesman Bud Jackson and Lincoln spokesman Steve Patterson – the two doing most of the traditional message response for their respective candidates. Says Brummett:
I don’t give a flip-fly what Jackson or Patterson says. I’m interested in what Lincoln and Halter have to say.
So let’s have a debate.
Let’s see if Lincoln and Halter can find time to talk directly to and about each other.
They’ll have to get out of the television studio where they are merely play-acting as self-styled heroes in an ongoing TV series — Halter as a grocery-bagger and Lincoln as one tough lady and the only grown-up in a romper room of wild children.
You can read Brummett’s full column at this link. He was our guest on Talk Business this week, too. Watch the interview here.
We grow weary of the daily tit-for-tat of press releases from campaign surrogates in the Lincoln v. Halter Democratic primary (other races, too).
Brummett singles out Halter spokesman Bud Jackson and Lincoln spokesman Steve Patterson – the two doing most of the traditional message response for their respective candidates. Says Brummett:
I don’t give a flip-fly what Jackson or Patterson says. I’m interested in what Lincoln and Halter have to say.
So let’s have a debate.
Let’s see if Lincoln and Halter can find time to talk directly to and about each other.
They’ll have to get out of the television studio where they are merely play-acting as self-styled heroes in an ongoing TV series — Halter as a grocery-bagger and Lincoln as one tough lady and the only grown-up in a romper room of wild children.
You can read Brummett’s full column at this link. He was our guest on Talk Business this week, too. Watch the interview here.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
C. BEAN TRANSPORT TO SHUTTER TRUCKING OPERATIONS
Michael Tilley with our content partner, The City Wire, follows up with a story from earlier in the week. A court-appointed company operating C. Bean Transport will close the trucking operations, but keep a warehouse operation open.
Ron Fuller, a spokesman for Bell Receivers, issued this statement late Tuesday: “We continue to work diligently for what is best for the employees and their families, the creditors, and the investors. Effective today (Wednesday, March 17th) the company has ceased its over the road operations.
The company will continue to operate the Fort Smith, Arkansas warehouse facility. As the receiver I will be issuing additional statements as needed. I understand how difficult this has been for everyone associated with the company and we sincerely appreciate the cooperation and understanding that has been shown by everyone involved.”
Fuller did not have information available on the number of jobs lost as a result of closing the trucking operation.
You can read more at this link.
Ron Fuller, a spokesman for Bell Receivers, issued this statement late Tuesday: “We continue to work diligently for what is best for the employees and their families, the creditors, and the investors. Effective today (Wednesday, March 17th) the company has ceased its over the road operations.
The company will continue to operate the Fort Smith, Arkansas warehouse facility. As the receiver I will be issuing additional statements as needed. I understand how difficult this has been for everyone associated with the company and we sincerely appreciate the cooperation and understanding that has been shown by everyone involved.”
Fuller did not have information available on the number of jobs lost as a result of closing the trucking operation.
You can read more at this link.
THE DEBATE ON THE DEBATE DEBATE
The debate regarding Cong. John Boozman’s absence from Tuesday’s GOP Senate forum has been elevated a day after the event.
Today, a Democratic Party of Arkansas official suggested that Boozman’s reason for missing the debate – he was fighting the Democratic health care bill in Washington – doesn’t hold up to public scrutiny.
DPA spokesman Gabe Holmstrom highlighted Boozman’s four public votes in D.C. yesterday, none of which had any connection to the health care debate. Boozman cast votes on four innocuous resolutions regarding the post office, American Red Cross, Vancouver Olympics and a Chinese spiritual movement.
“After looking at the votes John Boozman cast yesterday, it is very clear he was not fighting anything when he voted for each of these resolutions,” said Holmstrom. “Why was Mr. Boozman’s campaign saying one thing in Arkansas while he was doing something else in Washington?”
Holmstrom noted that last night marked the third time Boozman failed to take part in a GOP debate.
“What is he hiding? What is he afraid of?” Holmstrom added.
Boozman campaign spokesman Patrick Creamer tells Talk Business, "Mr. Holmstrom seems very keen on getting Cong. Boozman away from his colleagues in the House in an effort to silence the overwhelming opposition to Obamacare that the people of Arkansas have to it. Apparently, he is in denial of the pressure that his good friends Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid are applying on members of his own party to support this flawed initiative. Cong. Boozman is in Washington to fight their roughshod tactics on behalf of Arkansans. Political posturing from Mr. Holmstrom won’t silence that voice."
Add to the record this video from Boozman’s official Congressional web site. Boozman spoke on the floor of the House yesterday afternoon condemning the “deem and pass” procedure being debated in Washington.
“How in the world do you pass a bill without voting on it?” Boozman asked in a one-minute member speech.
Holmstrom, who attended the GOP forum, responded, “Well, each of the seven candidates last night pledged to do a lot more than give a one minute floor speech at 3 in the afternoon if they were in Congress.”
Creamer told Talk Business a day earlier that Boozman is expected to participate in future debates when “he is not required to be in D.C. representing his constituents, especially with a vote of this magnitude pending before the week’s end.”
On Wednesday, Republican Senate challenger Gilbert Baker’s campaign also responded to Boozman’s absence at the Tuesday forum.
“Interesting to learn the House actually did not have a scheduled vote on health care Tuesday,” said Baker campaign manager Alice Stewart. “Sen. Baker is committed to being in Arkansas, not inside Washington, to discuss the issues with the other U.S. Senate candidates during this campaign. We hope Cong. Boozman will join in the debate soon."
Today, a Democratic Party of Arkansas official suggested that Boozman’s reason for missing the debate – he was fighting the Democratic health care bill in Washington – doesn’t hold up to public scrutiny.
DPA spokesman Gabe Holmstrom highlighted Boozman’s four public votes in D.C. yesterday, none of which had any connection to the health care debate. Boozman cast votes on four innocuous resolutions regarding the post office, American Red Cross, Vancouver Olympics and a Chinese spiritual movement.
“After looking at the votes John Boozman cast yesterday, it is very clear he was not fighting anything when he voted for each of these resolutions,” said Holmstrom. “Why was Mr. Boozman’s campaign saying one thing in Arkansas while he was doing something else in Washington?”
Holmstrom noted that last night marked the third time Boozman failed to take part in a GOP debate.
“What is he hiding? What is he afraid of?” Holmstrom added.
Boozman campaign spokesman Patrick Creamer tells Talk Business, "Mr. Holmstrom seems very keen on getting Cong. Boozman away from his colleagues in the House in an effort to silence the overwhelming opposition to Obamacare that the people of Arkansas have to it. Apparently, he is in denial of the pressure that his good friends Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid are applying on members of his own party to support this flawed initiative. Cong. Boozman is in Washington to fight their roughshod tactics on behalf of Arkansans. Political posturing from Mr. Holmstrom won’t silence that voice."
Add to the record this video from Boozman’s official Congressional web site. Boozman spoke on the floor of the House yesterday afternoon condemning the “deem and pass” procedure being debated in Washington.
“How in the world do you pass a bill without voting on it?” Boozman asked in a one-minute member speech.
Holmstrom, who attended the GOP forum, responded, “Well, each of the seven candidates last night pledged to do a lot more than give a one minute floor speech at 3 in the afternoon if they were in Congress.”
Creamer told Talk Business a day earlier that Boozman is expected to participate in future debates when “he is not required to be in D.C. representing his constituents, especially with a vote of this magnitude pending before the week’s end.”
On Wednesday, Republican Senate challenger Gilbert Baker’s campaign also responded to Boozman’s absence at the Tuesday forum.
“Interesting to learn the House actually did not have a scheduled vote on health care Tuesday,” said Baker campaign manager Alice Stewart. “Sen. Baker is committed to being in Arkansas, not inside Washington, to discuss the issues with the other U.S. Senate candidates during this campaign. We hope Cong. Boozman will join in the debate soon."
CATCHING UP ON THE HOME BANCSHARES BEAT
Last Friday, we reported that Conway-based Home Bancshares acquired the assets and deposits of Orlando, Florida-based Old Southern Bank.
Full terms of the FDIC-assisted deal were not disclosed, but local reports provide a few new details.
From CFNews Channel 13, a reporter notes that Old Southern had nearly $380 million in assets and 1,700 accounts. “Centennial paid a one percent premium for each account,” according to the story.
It further stated that with the acquisition, Centennial will top $3 billion in assets.
The Orlando Sentinel newspaper reported that as many 300 Old Southern investors lost “nearly $60 million in the bank's demise.”
There had apparently been a boardroom blow-up in the past year as the bank’s financial woes became public.
Also, there was a last-minute attempt to raise about $45 million in capital to satisfy federal regulators and stave off the bank’s closure. For unknown reasons, that effort did not satisfy bank regulators.
Full terms of the FDIC-assisted deal were not disclosed, but local reports provide a few new details.
From CFNews Channel 13, a reporter notes that Old Southern had nearly $380 million in assets and 1,700 accounts. “Centennial paid a one percent premium for each account,” according to the story.
It further stated that with the acquisition, Centennial will top $3 billion in assets.
The Orlando Sentinel newspaper reported that as many 300 Old Southern investors lost “nearly $60 million in the bank's demise.”
There had apparently been a boardroom blow-up in the past year as the bank’s financial woes became public.
Also, there was a last-minute attempt to raise about $45 million in capital to satisfy federal regulators and stave off the bank’s closure. For unknown reasons, that effort did not satisfy bank regulators.
LINCOLN DEBUTS NEW AD TO PLAY UP AG CHAIRMANSHIP
Sen. Blanche Lincoln counters Lt. Gov. Bill Halter’s Coach with her own Farmer.
Today, Lincoln debuted a new TV ad that plays up the strength of her chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.
The ad, which you can view here, notes that it took 184 years for an Arkansan to receive the Ag chairmanship. It also states that Lincoln “forced the Department of Agriculture to put 700 Arkansans back to work in the Ouachita and Ozark forests.”
"It took us 184 years to get that chairmanship. I don't know why we'd want to give it up,” asks Lonoke County farmer L.D. Brantley.
We'll see if the ad shores up or improves Lincoln's standing in rural Arkansas. In October 2009, Talk Business polled the issue of the Ag chairmanship for Lincoln. Roughly one-quarter said it would influence their vote, another quarter said it would not. 47% said it made “no difference.”
Today, Lincoln debuted a new TV ad that plays up the strength of her chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.
The ad, which you can view here, notes that it took 184 years for an Arkansan to receive the Ag chairmanship. It also states that Lincoln “forced the Department of Agriculture to put 700 Arkansans back to work in the Ouachita and Ozark forests.”
"It took us 184 years to get that chairmanship. I don't know why we'd want to give it up,” asks Lonoke County farmer L.D. Brantley.
We'll see if the ad shores up or improves Lincoln's standing in rural Arkansas. In October 2009, Talk Business polled the issue of the Ag chairmanship for Lincoln. Roughly one-quarter said it would influence their vote, another quarter said it would not. 47% said it made “no difference.”
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